Langsung ke konten utama

Weekend Box Office Forecast: Tenet and Holdovers Aim to Continue Trend of Soft Declines

We’re still in the early weeks of what’s becoming obvious will be an extended recovery process for the domestic box office. Once again, all eyes will focus on how Christopher Nolan’s Tenet holds up in its third full domestic frame (fourth if counting Canada’s debut in late August).

The Warner Bros. tentpole eased just 29 percent last weekend with a $6.7 million domestic frame, coming off what’s projected to have been a $9.44 million three-day wide release as part of the Labor Day frame. That brought the North American total to $29.5 million through 17 days of play.

The combination of official studio reporting and reverse-engineering to determine the film’s true first wide weekend gross proved to be in line with (and on the higher end of) our projections detailed in last week’s forecast.

Tenet‘s domestic performance has become the target of divisive opinions regarding the progress of theatrical re-openings in the United States, exacerbated by the studio’s delay of Wonder Woman 1984 from October 2 to Christmas Day later this year.

By contrast to the muted domestic start, Nolan’s epic has earned $207.5 million globally through this past Sunday — meaning its $178 million from international earnings represents nearly 86 percent of the film’s total box office thus far.

Hopes on the domestic front were certainly for a higher result by this point, but the soft decline last weekend was the first verifiable evidence that expectations for a leggy run were beginning to come to fruition. Similar declines have been seen in other overseas markets throughout their second and third weekends.

The top three markets stateside — New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco — remain closed entering the coming weekend, which means the momentum of cinema restarts is leveling out for the time being.

NRG reported that, as of last weekend, only 41 percent of surveyed moviegoers were aware of theaters having re-opened, up only slightly from 33 percent the week before. The slow-burn of communication in suburban and urban areas is another contributing factor to the slow domestic restart thus far.

Nevertheless, an open market with no significant competition this weekend means Tenet should post another strong hold — especially in IMAX, Dolby Cinema, and other premium screen formats where the film is performing best.

As of Wednesday, September 16, Warner Bros. is continuing to withhold daily box office updates on the film.

New Mutants and Unhinged Continue Soft Week-to-Week Drops

The New Mutants and Unhinged additionally showcased strong holds last weekend and are continuing that trend to start this week. The Marvel pic from 20th Century Studios declined just 18 percent from Tuesday to Tuesday. Unhinged is estimated to have posted a similarly modest decline (perhaps stronger), though Solstice Studios had not updated with Tuesday’s grosses at the time of this report’s writing.

Meanwhile, Sony / TriStar’s The Broken Hearts Gallery eased 55 percent from Sunday to Monday before increasing nearly 27 percent on Tuesday. Both figures are encouraging as far as preliminary daily earnings go, especially for a film that’s leaning heavily toward young women and whose target audience is back in school at this point.

The lone wide opener this weekend will be Infidel from Cloudburst Entertainment. As has been frequently noted, any pre-release tracking during this time is volatile at best, especially for non-major studio releases such as this one.

No studios have confirmed location counts as of Wednesday evening, though we’re expecting most titles to remain relatively flat with last weekend’s totals.

Weekend Forecast

FilmDistributor3-Day Weekend ForecastProjected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 20% Change from Last Wknd
TenetWarner Bros.

$4,800,000 –
$5,900,000

$36,500,000 – $37,600,000

-28% to -12%

The New MutantsDisney / 20th Century Studios$1,500,000$17,550,000-28%
UnhingedSolstice Studios$1,150,000$15,500,000-24%
The Broken Hearts GallerySony / TriStar Pictures$730,000$2,300,000-35%
InfidelCloudburst Entertainment

$100,000 – $400,000

$100,000 – $400,000

NEW
Words on Bathroom WallsRoadside Attractions$195,000$2,220,000-15%
Bill & Ted Face the MusicUnited Artists Releasing$165,000$3,000,000-44%
The Personal History of David CopperfieldDisney / Searchlight Pictures$130,000$1,630,000-33%

All forecasts subject to change before the first confirmation of weekend grosses.

For press inquiries, please contact Shawn Robbins

Follow Boxoffice PRO on Twitter

The post Weekend Box Office Forecast: <em>Tenet</em> and Holdovers Aim to Continue Trend of Soft Declines appeared first on Boxoffice.



from Boxoffice

Komentar

Postingan populer dari blog ini

This Week on the Boxoffice Podcast: UNIC’s Laura Houlgatte-Abbott on the Second Wave of Cinema Closures in Europe

In this week’s episode of the Boxoffice Podcast, Boxoffice Pro Editorial Director Daniel Loria and Deputy Editor Rebecca Pahle were joined by UNIC CEO Laura Houlgatte-Abbott, who broke down the still-evolving situation in Europe. Several countries there have been subject to a second wave of shutdowns —either total or in select regions. As Houlgatte-Abbott notes in the Boxoffice Podcast’s exclusive interview, those lockdowns are not targeted at cinemas, which to this point have not been identified as a site of Covid-19 spread. Earlier in the podcast, Loria and Pahle break down news and insights gleaned from earnings calls that have taken place over the last week, with AMC , Marcus, Imax , and Kinepolis updating their investors on the state of their respective businesses. Listen to the latest episode of the Boxoffice podcast embedded above or on your podcast platform of choice. Please remember to rate and subscribe, and please consider filling out our listener survey . Laura Houlgatte-...

Cinemark Q3 Earnings Reports: CEO Mark Zoradi Speaks on “Dynamic Theatrical Windows,” the Success of Private Rentals

Many of the questions asked of Cinemark CEO Mark Zoradi during this morning’s quarterly earnings call were about streaming and theatrical exclusivity—leading the CEO to offer some updates on their evolving windows policy as well as clarify other points about the chain’s status moving into the fourth quarter of 2020. At AMC’s Q3 earnings call, held earlier this week, CEO Adam Aron touted the chain’s deal with Universal, which can see the theatrical exclusivity window for that studio’s titles shrink from the traditional 72 days to as little as 17 at AMC theaters. Cinemark, Zoradi announced, will join AMC in playing upcoming Universal and Focus releases The Croods: A New Age , Freaky , and Let Him Go when they open in theaters this month. Cineworld, owner of Regal, the country’s second largest chain, has made no announcements about reopening the bulk of their theaters in the coming weeks, though none of the handful of Regal theaters open in NY and CA list showtimes for Focus Features’ ...

Weekend Box Office Forecast: Focus Features Eyes Back-to-Back #1 Openers with Let Him Go

It’s been — and still is — a wild week for the United States and the entire world as the results of the presidential election remain unknown and the pandemic continues with consistent daily records of new cases. For those seeking some semblance of escapism in a safe and politics-free environment, however, this weekend will provide the latest new release hoping to provide theaters and audiences with fresh content: Let Him Go . The western-drama-thriller starring Diane Lane and Kevin Costner is the latest offering from Focus Features, under Universal Pictures, during exhibition’s mid-pandemic restart. The studio just delivered the top film of last weekend with Come Play , a horror title delivering solid results under the circumstances. Now, Focus is back in action again with what looks to be their second consecutive weekend atop the box office. Let Him Go has earned respectable social media footprints for a film aimed predominately at an audience not known for making significant onlin...